What Happened in the Job Market
This week’s key economic data came from ADP, a private payroll company, since the government’s official jobs report has been delayed by the shutdown. Their update showed the U.S. lost about 32,000 jobs in September, even though analysts had expected a gain of 50,000. Last month’s report was also revised down from a gain of 54,000 to a small loss of 3,000 jobs.
Weaker job growth typically signals a slowing economy. For financial markets, that often means less pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates, which can support bonds and help keep mortgage costs steady.
How Mortgage Rates Reacted
Markets responded quickly to the disappointing job numbers. Mortgage bonds improved in the morning, which can sometimes translate to lower borrowing costs. However, by afternoon trading, much of that momentum leveled out.
The end result: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held steady at 6.37%, nearly unchanged from yesterday. This continues a trend of relative calm. For nearly two weeks now, the average 30-year fixed has hovered in the mid-6.3% range—one of the more stable stretches we’ve seen in 2025.
For buyers and homeowners, that stability is important. Even though rates didn’t fall significantly on this report, they remain near the lowest levels of the year, creating an opportunity to lock in affordability.
Why Stability Matters Right Now
After a year of sharp swings tied to inflation data and Federal Reserve announcements, steady rates are welcome news for both buyers and sellers:
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For homebuyers: A steady average 30-year fixed helps with budgeting and affordability. Today’s 6.37% is nearly three-quarters of a point lower than peak levels seen earlier this year. That can translate into meaningful monthly savings.
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For sellers: More predictable financing helps bring buyers back into the market, supporting demand and helping homes sell faster.
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For homeowners considering refinancing: While most applications are still for purchases, refinance demand has been rising—especially as rates stabilized after dipping last month.
What to Watch Next
The bigger market mover will be the official government jobs report from the Department of Labor. This is the “gold standard” of employment data and often has a much larger impact on mortgage rates than private payroll estimates.
Because of the shutdown, the release date of that report is unknown. When it does arrive, it could push the average 30-year fixed either lower (if the jobs market looks weaker) or higher (if it comes in stronger than expected).
Until then, expect rates to stay relatively flat unless another surprise hits the market.
Bottom Line
On October 1, 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate held steady at 6.37%, despite weaker private job data. Rates remain near their lowest levels in almost a year, offering buyers and homeowners a window of stability in an otherwise unpredictable market.
If you’ve been waiting to buy or refinance, this stability could be your signal to start exploring options.
Want to see what that looks like for homes you’re considering? Just comment, message, or give me a call—I’m here to help!
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Source: Mortgage News Daily